Thursday 8 September 2016

#Brexit - Prepare yourself for the London Property market crash

There is an article on the front page of the Daily Express today, claiming that UK property prices are set to boom for the next five years. Buried in the article is a short sentence that says prices in London are falling.

Like many recent articles in the Express recently on the #Brexit subject, the Express are being economical with the truth. As no one yet knows the shape of #Brexit or how the government might clamp down on immigration, it is most dishonest to claim property prices will boom.

Economic laws state that the price of everything is driven by supply and demand. Immigration controls can only weaken demand, as this means less people require property. If #Brexit has no net effect on immigration, then maybe the property bubble will continue, but how anyone can predict where this will be in five years is beyond me.

A more realistic scenario is a cooling of demand, leading to either lower growth rates in increases or a drop. Given the warnings from Japan and the USA, about IK investment, to me a drop seems most likely. At present there has been a boom in non UK residents buying luxury flats as investments. This is fuelled by price inflation. If this ceased, then many would soon look at dumping these non appreciating assets.

Following the #Brexit vote, the devaluation of the pound created a mini boom, where to foreign investors, property became cheap. If they start to sense that they will lose money, they will be out just as quickly. So if you are looking at property as an investment, think very carefully.

No comments: