Wednesday, 29 April 2009
How much dosh has Mike Freer lost in Iceland?
It seems that Mike Freer and his Mates (Mates is a brand of condom designed to keep a dick separate from nasty things and stop unplanned events further down the line, as well as being a slang word for a friend) are still spinning the old porkie that he's lost no money in Iceland.
I thought we'd do a bit of analysis on the situation (on the back of a cigarrette packet).
a) What Mike has definately lost - if he'd invested the £27.4 Million in banks which hadn't gone bust, at the same rate of interest, he'd have £913,333 in the kitty in interest. Whatever happens, that is gone - that is the figure as of today. Every day that the money is frozen figure goes up by £6,005.00
b) What Mike will optimistically won't get back - The most optimistic figure is 80% (and this is the most optimistic by a country mile) = £5.48 Million lost (along with with the interest on top) - I believe the Council have set a 25% probability on this being the likely settlement.
c) What Mike has realistically lost - The consensus is less than 50% will come back - So probably more than £13.7 Million. I believe that the Council have set a 65% probability of this being the likely settlement.
d) What Mike Could lose - The lot - £27.4 Million + interest - if it all goes wrong for Barnet.
I believe that the Council have set a 10% probability on this being the likely outcome.
e) The costs of dealing with the fiasco - accountants etc, travel to Iceland, staff, expert advice - a little birdy told me that the cost is well above £150,000 - but I've no idea if that figure is true. Former Councillor Richard Weider confirmed to me that the average cost of these consultants is well above £1,000 a day.
However you look at it, the figures are huge. Has Mike apologised for this? Nope. Has he even admitted there will be a loss. Nope.
Mike and his Mates, know my email address. If they dispute any of these figures, then they can email me their revised and more accurate figures and I'll put them up here. If anyone from the Council want's to use this blog or any other blog to give us an honest council estimate of the situation, then fine. The claim that "Nothing" has been lost is a porkie. This information isn't commercially sensitive, it's not as if there is any competition in collecting council tax. We pay it, the we elect the council, but they have told us nothing, given us no figures and just indulged in Damian McBride style spin. The figures I quote above are back of the fag packet estimates based on information in the public domain. They may be wrong, but until the council come clean they are the best figures I've got.
Now let me just clarify one last thing. The source figures I've used are partially based on information given to me by someone very close to the matter at the council in a conversation. I trust that person and believe the information to be accurate, but there have been comments that the Council are deliberately leaking porkies to blogs - If it is wrong then I'd be more than happy to post the correct figures.
Oh and always make sure you've got your Mates close at hand. It is just as important to be safe with your sexual health as it is for the Head of Resources at the Council to Be Safe with our money. I recall Mrs Thatcher's AIDS campaign. Let's hope that what we're being told isn't the tip of the Iceberg !